Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:59:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

A2 0xa29e…65ab other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$20 (+103%) realized +$20 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip

Net edge+36%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown43%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day7.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+42.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+56.9%	+42.0%	40%	40%	+85.7%
≤30d	5	+56.9%	+42.0%	40%	40%	+85.7%
≤90d	5	+56.9%	+42.0%	40%	40%	+85.7%
all	5	+56.9%	+42.0%	40%	40%	+85.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+42.0%	40%	+85.7%
10%	+28.4%	40%	+67.9%
15%	+16.0%	40%	+51.7%
20%	+4.6%	40%	+36.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +105% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +57% · $-wt +105% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$3 · ×5.03 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.35 per $1 lost it wins $3.35

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$20

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day7.7

Drawdown43%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 24	$5	+$26	+509%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$5	+$3	+54%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 24	$2	−$2	-79%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 24	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	100¢	$31	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$8	1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	5¢	$0	2h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$2	4h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	14¢	$2	4h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$5	4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records