Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2a0…7e90 sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (167 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,867per market
Trades / day167.1pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$421
sports 12% −$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (167 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -7.8% -16.6% 77% 23% -8.8%
≤30d 13 -7.8% -16.6% 77% 23% -8.8%
≤90d 13 -7.8% -16.6% 77% 23% -8.8%
all 13 -7.8% -16.6% 77% 23% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover167.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 23% -8.8%
10% -24.6% 0% -17.5%
15% ← realistic here -31.8% 0% -25.5%
20% -38.5% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
27.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$142 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,867
Trades / day167.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $574 −$23 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15,732 +$305 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,434 +$19 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $165 −$165 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,600 −$238 -15%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $231 +$13 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,311 +$85 +6%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $207 +$11 +5%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $27 +$5 +19%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $703 +$142 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $772 +$15 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $500 +$20 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 36¢ $551 16m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $574 19m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 8¢ $268 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $28 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $4 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $57 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $32 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $15 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $8 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $32 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $56 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $3 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 3¢ $500 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 3¢ $73 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 3¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 3¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 3¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 3¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 3¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 3¢ $424 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 3¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 3¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 3¢ $56 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 3¢ $166 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 3¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 677 history records