Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:30:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A2 0xa2a0…e208 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$48 (+7%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$65
14 days+$96
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$160
other 21% −$34
world 10% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +24.7% +12.9% 50% 50% +11.4%
≤30d 18 +12.6% +1.9% 50% 50% +4.5%
≤90d 19 +11.2% +0.6% 47% 47% +3.0%
all 19 +11.2% +0.6% 47% 47% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 47% +3.0%
10% -9.0% 47% -6.9%
15% -17.8% 47% -15.9%
20% -25.9% 42% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$29 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage68d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $22 +$32 +145%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $35 +$57 +164%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $11 −$2 -15%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $44 +$46 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $54 −$53 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 +$75 +165%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $30 +$16 +53%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $19 −$18 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$28 +138%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $46 +$60 +129%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$16 +44%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 11 $38 −$5 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $100 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 50¢ $50 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $55 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 27h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 89¢ $91 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $35 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 53¢ $9 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $11 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 82¢ $90 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $44 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 64¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 64¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 63¢ $40 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $34 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $121 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $46 7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 93¢ $46 7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 60¢ $30 7d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $19 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $50 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 57¢ $15 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $5 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $11 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $18 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $48 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 32¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records