Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa2a2…b04d
crypto · 194 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
+$23,192 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26,150 · open −$2,958
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$7,596
Realized+$26,150
Unrealized−$2,958
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses73 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$258
Open positions3
Markets (closed)191 / 194
Avg bet$638
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 191 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4,277
14 days+$4,614
30 days+$4,623
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8,927 $5,225 −$3,702 (-41%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $1,055 $1,951 +$897 (+85%)
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $572 $419 −$152 (-27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Jun 06 $1,288 +$9,721 +754%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Jun 06 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 06 $2,814 −$2,814 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Jun 06 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 06 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 06 $31 +$20 +64%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $204 +$337 +165%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $100 +$9 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 01 $425 −$362 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 18 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $400 +$1,150 +287%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $1,350 +$7,314 +542%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 07 $13,594 −$13,594 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 25 $100 +$37 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 25 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 24 $380 −$380 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 24 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 24 $16,141 −$16,141 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 10 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 09 $4 +$6 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 07 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 07 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 61% +$11,256
crypto 35% +$4,589
other 2% −$2,000
sports 1% +$10,146
finance 1% −$752
culture 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $496 43h
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $75 44h
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,055 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,700 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $162 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $900 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $234 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +21.5% +9.9% 44% 44% +47.1%
≤30d 18 +28.8% +16.5% 50% 44% +49.1%
≤90d 32 +24.7% +12.9% 47% 44% -49.4%
all 191 -2.5% -11.8% 38% 35% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 35% +11.4%
10% -20.2% 34% +0.7%
15% ← realistic here -27.9% 32% -9.0%
20% -35.0% 29% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,595.52 · official $7,595.52 (match) · 3500 history records