Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A2 0xa2a3…65d8 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% $0
politics 33% $0
sports 13% $0
crypto 7% $0
world 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
all 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage117d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $108 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $108 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $108 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $108 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $110 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $110 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $110 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $110 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $108 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $108 12h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $108 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $108 15d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $108 21d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $108 22d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $108 28d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 28d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 38d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 38d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $108 43d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $109 44d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 69d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 70d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 71d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 71d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $110 74d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $110 75d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $110 79d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $110 79d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 86d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 86d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 86d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 101d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 101d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $110 104d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $26 104d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 104d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $26 104d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $110 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records