Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:18:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A2 0xa2a6…ae0e crypto 382 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$543 (+4%) realized +$543 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate96%365W / 17L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$118
14 days+$220
30 days+$495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$509
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +9.0% -1.4% 100% 11% -1.5%
≤30d 271 +2.8% -7.0% 96% 14% -5.3%
≤90d 382 +2.5% -7.3% 96% 13% -6.2%
all 382 +2.5% -7.3% 96% 13% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 13% -6.2%
10% -16.1% 1% -15.2%
15% -24.3% 0% -23.4%
20% -31.7% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$28 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$543
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses365 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)382 / 382
History coverage38d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 382 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $162 +$18 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $200 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $157 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $98 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $199 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $165 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $105 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $146 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $130 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $143 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $114 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $156 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $147 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $106 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $53 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $92 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $97 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $53 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $38 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $54 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $54 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $49 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $78 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $33 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $162 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $188 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $157 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $67 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $81 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $73 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $83 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $82 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $80 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $28 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $130 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $63 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $41 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $99 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $114 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $41 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $28 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 882 history records