Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:55:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa2b0…2c2a other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 361d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$279 (+2%) realized +$279 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate96%47W / 2L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$237
world 11% −$9
crypto 4% +$34
economics 3% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 23 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 9% -9.3%
all 49 +1.3% -8.4% 96% 10% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 10% -7.5%
10% -17.1% 2% -16.3%
15% -25.1% 2% -24.4%
20% -32.5% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$31 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.51 per $1 lost it wins $5.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses47 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage361d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $144 $144 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mikel Merino be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $143 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $143 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $68 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $68 +$5 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $136 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $134 +$3 +2%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $25 $0 +2%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $25 +$4 +15%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 01 $29 +$1 +2%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 May 01 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 May 01 $47 +$1 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 25 $29 −$29 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 25 $61 +$2 +3%
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 15? Apr 21 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 21 $46 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 14 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $29 +$5 +16%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 31 $140 +$5 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 22 $139 +$1 +0%
Will "Love is Blind: The Reunion" be the top US Netflix show this week Mar 18 $9 $0 +5%
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week? Mar 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the top US Netflix show this week? Mar 18 $22 $0 +1%
Will "The Dinosaurs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Mar 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? Mar 18 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 16 $68 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Mar 16 $68 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $64 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $64 +$8 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $36 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November? Dec 24 $36 $0 +1%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 29 $80 −$33 -41%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Nov 25 $33 +$2 +7%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 7? Nov 17 $64 +$2 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 01 $61 +$3 +4%
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025? Oct 22 $4 +$2 +49%
Fed rate cut by September meeting? Oct 22 $51 +$4 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Sep 05 $161 +$18 +11%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18? Jul 22 $148 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? Jul 22 $806 +$3 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 18? Jul 22 $3,751 +$148 +4%
World Series of Poker – American winner? Jul 17 $4,610 +$94 +2%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jul 01 $159 +$2 +2%
Will Solana dip to $120 in June? Jun 29 $145 +$14 +10%
Major cyberattack on Iran in June? Jun 25 $144 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $144 1h
Will Mikel Merino be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $143 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $143 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 15d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 93¢ $68 15d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 98¢ $134 30d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 37d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $18 37d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 37d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 87¢ $11 37d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $7 37d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 37d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 37d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 37d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 BUY No 99¢ $47 55d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $42 56d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $1 56d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $1 56d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $1 56d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $1 56d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $1 56d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 58d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 60d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 60d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? BUY No 99¢ $46 66d
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 15? BUY No 100¢ $46 66d
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 86¢ $7 81d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $29 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.93 · official $143.93 (match) · 154 history records