Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2b2…4fff sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$112 (+2%) realized +$112 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$788per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -27.2% -34.2% 67% 11% -11.9%
≤30d 9 -27.2% -34.2% 67% 11% -11.9%
≤90d 9 -27.2% -34.2% 67% 11% -11.9%
all 9 -27.2% -34.2% 67% 11% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.2% 11% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -40.5% 11% -20.4%
15% -46.2% 0% -28.1%
20% -51.5% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$245 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$788
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $410 −$315 -77%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $500 +$15 +3%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $805 +$219 +27%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $802 +$77 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $404 −$400 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $1,718 +$138 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $1,634 +$84 +5%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $801 +$16 +2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $20 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff $10 56m
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff $21 59m
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 14¢ $51 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 79¢ $201 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 79¢ $30 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff SELL Paula Badosa 19¢ $77 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 22¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 22¢ $20 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 22¢ $20 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 22¢ $31 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 20¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 19¢ $18 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 85¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 99¢ $200 23h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 96¢ $200 23h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 95¢ $100 23h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 81¢ $101 25h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 81¢ $101 25h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 84¢ $201 25h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 80¢ $101 25h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 74¢ $202 25h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 70¢ $101 25h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya SELL Elina Svitolina 99¢ $879 25h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 90¢ $201 26h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 89¢ $201 26h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 92¢ $200 26h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 90¢ $201 26h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 65¢ $202 47h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 65¢ $202 47h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $7 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records