Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A2 0xa2b6…3d60 sports 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,274 (-4%) realized −$1,274 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%32W / 42L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$434per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$256
14 days−$180
30 days−$431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$995
other 3% −$462
world 0% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.2% -23.3% 47% 40% +2.5%
≤30d 26 -26.1% -33.1% 31% 27% -21.7%
≤90d 30 -29.8% -36.5% 27% 23% -25.4%
all 74 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 38% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 38% -13.9%
10% -27.8% 36% -22.1%
15% -34.8% 31% -29.7%
20% -41.2% 24% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$189 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,274
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage124d
Avg bet$434
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $152 +$81 +54%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $40 −$14 -36%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $152 +$124 +82%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 −$32 -54%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $49 +$8 +17%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $497 +$351 +71%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 18 $204 −$153 -75%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $59 +$41 +70%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $42 −$41 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $33 −$7 -22%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $202 +$9 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 +$123 +61%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $151 −$149 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $215 −$6 -3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $155 −$88 -57%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$13 -61%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$58 +188%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $29 −$29 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $54 −$24 -45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $109 −$56 -52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $138 −$29 -21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $501 −$251 -50%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Apr 03 $222 −$219 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 03 $150 −$127 -84%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $2,100 −$212 -10%
Nets vs. Warriors Mar 26 $208 −$42 -20%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 25 $285 −$285 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $300 −$164 -55%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $204 +$83 +41%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $200 +$91 +45%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 19 $200 +$233 +116%
Spurs vs. Raptors Mar 19 $2,050 −$519 -25%
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela Mar 18 $692 +$316 +46%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $497 −$287 -58%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 17 $153 +$144 +94%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 16 $323 +$10 +3%
Pistons vs. Raptors Mar 15 $248 −$204 -82%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 15 $171 +$60 +35%
Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 226.5 Mar 12 $200 +$174 +87%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 11 $220 +$146 +66%
Knicks vs. Clippers Mar 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Knicks vs. Lakers Mar 08 $100 +$152 +152%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Mar 08 $1,000 +$311 +31%
Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 11.5 Mar 08 $335 −$31 -9%
Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5 Mar 07 $300 −$300 -100%
Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 12.5 Mar 07 $1,000 +$240 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $233 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $152 3h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $26 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $24 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $16 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 96¢ $277 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $152 2d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 22¢ $28 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 58¢ $57 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $49 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 85¢ $849 5d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) SELL Boston Red Sox 10¢ $50 5d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 49¢ $497 5d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 39¢ $204 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $42 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $26 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $200 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $33 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 64¢ $211 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $202 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $326 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $202 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $151 7d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 32¢ $52 7d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 35¢ $59 7d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 65¢ $158 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 214 history records