Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2b7…04b2 sports 383 markets active 10h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (147 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$450 (+11%) realized +$451 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%228W / 131L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day147.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$226
7 days+$349
14 days+$419
30 days+$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$502
other 21% +$58
sports 18% −$142
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (147 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 -2.3% -11.6% 60% 54% +0.2%
≤30d 359 +1.4% -8.3% 64% 55% -0.2%
≤90d 359 +1.4% -8.3% 64% 55% -0.2%
all 359 +1.4% -8.3% 64% 55% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover147.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 55% -0.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 43% -9.7%
15% -25.1% 38% -18.4%
20% -32.4% 29% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$451
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses228 / 131
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions24
Markets (closed)359 / 383
History coverage12d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day147.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 92¢ 92¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 79¢ 80¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 82¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 76¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 84¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 81¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 40¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 43¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 73¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 52¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 72¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$11 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$19 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$16 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$12 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$18 +56%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$1 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$17 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$27 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$10 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$14 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$16 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$25 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$23 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$21 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$21 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$19 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$29 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$18 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$17 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$38 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$23 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $0 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.92 · official $161.92 (match) · 2090 history records