Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A2 0xa2b9…e101 sports 126 markets active 2d ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate71%90W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$8
sports 37% −$1
weather 10% +$1
crypto 10% −$4
culture 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -2.3% -11.6% 67% 67% -19.5%
≤30d 17 -4.6% -13.7% 65% 65% -25.1%
≤90d 97 -4.3% -13.4% 67% 57% -11.4%
all 126 -3.4% -12.6% 71% 51% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 51% -10.5%
10% -20.9% 37% -19.1%
15% -28.6% 23% -26.9%
20% -35.6% 12% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses90 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage92d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$2 -66%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 +$1 +46%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 +$1 +46%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +27%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $6 +$3 +56%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $9 −$9 -99%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 +$1 +23%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 −$2 -99%
FC Porto vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5 May 02 $6 −$2 -29%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 +$1 +26%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $3 +$1 +38%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5 May 01 $5 +$1 +23%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $3 +$2 +50%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $3 +$1 +38%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5 Apr 30 $9 +$1 +12%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $3 −$1 -29%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Apr 30 $7 +$1 +14%
Mirassol FC vs. Club Always Ready: O/U 3.5 Apr 30 $3 +$2 +59%
Spread: CA Platense (-1.5) Apr 30 $6 +$1 +18%
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) Apr 29 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Millonarios FC (-1.5) Apr 29 $3 +$1 +34%
Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5) Apr 29 $7 +$1 +16%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $2 +$1 +55%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Apr 28 $8 +$2 +32%
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Unión: Both Teams to Score Apr 27 $3 −$3 -99%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5 Apr 27 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $8 +$2 +29%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $5 +$2 +46%
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) Apr 26 $4 −$1 -36%
Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5) Apr 26 $4 +$1 +31%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 25 $9 +$2 +26%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Apr 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $3 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $6 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $5 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 26¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $2 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $3 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $3 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $2 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $3 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $3 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $3 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $4 6d
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 76¢ $9 24d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $6 24d
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $7 45d
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 45d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 46d
FC Porto vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 61¢ $4 46d
FC Porto vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $6 46d
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 86¢ $8 46d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 81¢ $5 46d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 88¢ $9 46d
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $2 46d
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 79¢ $5 46d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 47d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-30? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 245 history records