Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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A2 0xa2bc…cfad crypto 462 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$291 (-3%) realized −$291 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%278W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$56
14 days−$53
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$512
other 1% −$8
sports 0% +$3
world 0% −$8
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -9.6% -18.2% 60% 44% -13.1%
≤30d 166 -9.2% -17.8% 61% 44% -13.1%
≤90d 458 -8.5% -17.2% 61% 47% -14.0%
all 458 -8.5% -17.2% 61% 47% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 47% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 34% -22.2%
15% -32.4% 20% -29.7%
20% -39.0% 12% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$291
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses278 / 180
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)458 / 462
History coverage70d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 −$4 -17%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$6 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -94%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $30 −$2 -5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.34 · official $33.35 (match) · 1773 history records