Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2be…f232 other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%21W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$34
14 days−$53
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$37
sports 22% −$11
politics 20% −$6
crypto 8% −$4
world 7% −$1
culture 6% −$2
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$3
finance 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -2.0% -11.4% 13% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 62 -1.4% -10.8% 13% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 117 -0.7% -10.2% 15% 0% -9.9%
all 131 -0.7% -10.1% 16% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses21 / 110
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage99d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? No 96¢ 96¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $46 −$4 -9%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $148 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $118 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $275 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $321 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $51 −$1 -3%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $104 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $194 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $207 −$4 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $65 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 12 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $44 $0 -1%
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 10 $64 −$16 -25%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $246 −$4 -2%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $45 $0 -1%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $9 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $103 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $139 −$1 -0%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $49 −$3 -6%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $53 −$4 -7%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $360 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $42 −$2 -6%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $148 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $98 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $61 $0 +1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $53 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $223 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $43 53m
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $54 1h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $55 7h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 87¢ $42 7h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 95¢ $46 16h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 16h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 20h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $51 21h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $51 28h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $55 28h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $55 34h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $59 35h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $60 42h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 43h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $64 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $49 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $51 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 3d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $53 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $58 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $23 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.79 · official $42.79 (match) · 489 history records