Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A2 0xa2bf…894f other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 356d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$234 (+80%) realized +$233 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +81% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip

Net edge+64%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown13%max

Avg bet$73per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 356d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+63.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+262.1%	+227.6%	100%	100%	+227.6%
≤30d	1	+262.1%	+227.6%	100%	100%	+227.6%
≤90d	1	+262.1%	+227.6%	100%	100%	+227.6%
all	2	+81.0%	+63.8%	50%	50%	+152.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+63.8%	50%	+152.5%
10%	+48.1%	50%	+128.4%
15%	+33.8%	50%	+106.3%
20%	+20.7%	50%	+86.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +262% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +81% · $-wt +179% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$261 vs −$30 · ×8.82 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.82 per $1 lost it wins $8.82

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage

Net worth$161

Realized+$233

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage356d

Avg bet$73

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown13%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	8¢	$60	$63	+$3 (+5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?	Jun 28	$100	+$261	+262%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?	Jul 07	$30	−$30	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	21¢	$102	1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$62	1h
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?	SELL Yes	100¢	$360	2h
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?	BUY Yes	27¢	$100	9d
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?	BUY Yes	3¢	$30	355d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.51 · official $160.51 (match) · 5 history records