Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2c1…c53f crypto 1653 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,325 (-19%) realized −$1,325 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%652W / 1001L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$172
14 days−$199
30 days−$530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$382
tech 15% −$164
weather 3% −$18
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -5.0% -14.1% 47% 47% -22.0%
≤30d 1279 -10.9% -19.4% 39% 39% -17.5%
≤90d 1653 -9.8% -18.4% 39% 39% -16.9%
all 1653 -9.8% -18.4% 39% 39% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 39% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 39% -24.9%
15% -33.3% 39% -32.1%
20% -39.8% 39% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,325
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses652 / 1001
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1653 / 1653
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1653 Trades
no open positions (409 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records