Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
A2 0xa2c1…ec58 politics 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$1 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$579now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$2
economics 2% $0
other 2% −$12
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.5% -12.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -3.5% -12.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 -3.5% -12.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
all 8 -2.7% -11.9% 25% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$579
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage243d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $169 $169 −$0 (-0%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 16¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -21%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $178 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
USDT depeg in 2025? Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 22 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 40m
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 46m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 3h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 3h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 4h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 5h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 8h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 9h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 11h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 12h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 15h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 15h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 16h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 19h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 19h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 19h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 20h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 97¢ $15 2d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $15 187d
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 213d
USDT depeg in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $19 213d
USDT depeg in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $19 228d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $49 243d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $49 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $578.58 · official $578.58 (match) · 29 history records