Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:52:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa2c2…e482 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+33%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +95% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+76.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +94.7% +76.2% 60% 60% +57.9%
≤30d 5 +94.7% +76.2% 60% 60% +57.9%
≤90d 5 +94.7% +76.2% 60% 60% +57.9%
all 5 +94.7% +76.2% 60% 60% +57.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +76.2% 60% +57.9%
10% +59.3% 60% +42.8%
15% +43.9% 60% +29.0%
20% +29.8% 60% +16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +74% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +95% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$6 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 34¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Over 35¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 +$21 +510%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 53¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 32¢ $6 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $12 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $19 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $8 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 15h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 16¢ $4 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.25 · official $32.25 (match) · 15 history records