Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
A2 0xa2c3…3e18 sports 421 markets active 13h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,516 (+18%) realized +$3,388 · open +$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate71%298W / 121L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$293est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$855
7 days+$1,140
14 days+$1,275
30 days+$3,107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$2,724
other 15% +$613
world 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +52.9% +38.3% 82% 50% +10.3%
≤30d 263 +18.1% +6.9% 75% 30% +6.6%
≤90d 419 +16.7% +5.6% 71% 26% +5.5%
all 419 +16.7% +5.6% 71% 26% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.6% 26% +5.5%
10% ← realistic here -4.5% 19% -4.6%
15% -13.8% 14% -13.8%
20% -22.2% 10% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.02 per $1 lost it wins $4.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized+$3,388
Unrealized+$128
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses298 / 121
Est. fees paid−$293
Open positions2
Markets (closed)419 / 421
History coverage56d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 419 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 56¢ $100 $184 +$84 (+85%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 80¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Abbosbek Fayzullayev: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 +$9 +1104%
Jhon Arias: 1+ goals Jun 18 $94 −$68 -73%
Caleb Yirenkyi: 1+ goals Jun 18 $35 +$16 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $910 +$386 +42%
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals Jun 17 $17 +$17 +100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $400 +$18 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $383 +$2 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 +$2 +95%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $79 +$75 +95%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$22 +45%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $103 +$94 +91%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $503 +$211 +42%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $109 +$60 +55%
Aymen Hussein: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2 +$3 +112%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $23 +$10 +42%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $51 −$2 -5%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 16 $51 −$2 -5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $300 +$79 +26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $17 +$2 +14%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $400 −$5 -1%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $591 +$40 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $34 +$4 +12%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals + assists Jun 14 $21 $0 +2%
Neymar Jr: 2+ shots on target Jun 14 $26 +$1 +3%
Neymar Jr: 1+ shots on target Jun 14 $37 +$1 +2%
Neymar Jr: 3+ shots on target Jun 14 $37 +$1 +2%
Yusuf Abdurisag: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $100 +$8 +8%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $100 +$38 +38%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $51 +$101 +197%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $100 +$30 +30%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $51 +$105 +206%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 +$36 +70%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +110%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $100 −$23 -23%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $101 +$2 +2%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $75 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $16 +$20 +125%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Abbosbek Fayzullayev: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $10 13h
Abbosbek Fayzullayev: 1+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $1 13h
Jhon Arias: 1+ goals SELL Yes 19¢ $6 14h
Jhon Arias: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $20 14h
Jhon Arias: 1+ goals BUY Yes 75¢ $90 14h
Jhon Arias: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $4 14h
Caleb Yirenkyi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $51 15h
Caleb Yirenkyi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $35 15h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $814 19h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $200 19h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $200 19h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $82 19h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 75¢ $82 19h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 75¢ $100 19h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 75¢ $100 19h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 75¢ $100 19h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 75¢ $100 19h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 75¢ $100 19h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $86 19h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $69 19h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $86 19h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $86 19h
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $5 20h
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $30 20h
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $17 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 91¢ $262 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 91¢ $100 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 91¢ $1 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 91¢ $8 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 91¢ $17 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.56 · official $327.56 (match) · 1828 history records