Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A2 0xa2c3…8b21 sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,570 (-10%) realized −$14,617 · open +$47
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%71W / 38L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,352per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$586est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$59
30 days−$940
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$15,254
other 1% +$97
crypto 0% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -26.0% -33.1% 25% 25% -40.2%
≤90d 43 +4.7% -5.3% 63% 58% -20.7%
all 109 +3.3% -6.5% 65% 48% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 48% -18.8%
10% -15.4% 38% -26.5%
15% -23.6% 28% -33.6%
20% -31.1% 18% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,741) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$347 vs −$1,046 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$14,617
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses71 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$586
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,352
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Türkiye 81¢ 100¢ $201 $248 +$47 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lokomotiv Kuban vs. BC Zenit Jun 09 $119 −$118 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $125 −$6 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $947 −$20 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $346 +$84 +24%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $795 −$783 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $170 −$167 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $183 −$13 -7%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 +$82 +81%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $1,163 −$1,139 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $4,999 −$4,847 -97%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $4,500 +$929 +21%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $3,628 +$1,047 +29%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $2,601 +$1,027 +40%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $2,514 +$271 +11%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $2,050 +$464 +23%
Goyang vs. KCC Egis May 05 $57 −$6 -10%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $1 +$1 +76%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 04 $2,202 −$146 -7%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $1,741 +$791 +46%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $1,300 +$441 +34%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Grou May 03 $14 −$14 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $3 +$2 +51%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $12 +$9 +74%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $3 +$6 +186%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Apr 08 $4,828 −$4,809 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $477 −$471 -99%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $408 +$69 +17%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 1win (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A Apr 07 $3,720 +$1,704 +46%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $3,161 +$1,309 +41%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $3,081 +$80 +3%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $2,309 +$807 +35%
Dota 2: MODUS vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Apr 06 $283 +$83 +29%
Dota 2: 1win vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A Apr 06 $400 −$30 -8%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs ALIS VENTORUS (BO3) - European Pro League Group Apr 06 $183 +$18 +10%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group B Apr 06 $1,657 +$1,062 +64%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers L Apr 06 $84 +$49 +58%
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Apr 06 $825 +$259 +31%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $469 +$356 +76%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Power Rangers (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group B Apr 05 $360 +$108 +30%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Apr 05 $207 +$154 +74%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 05 $100 +$106 +106%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 01 $1,198 −$1,179 -98%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 29 $4,664 −$4,664 -100%
Bucks vs. Suns Mar 22 $190 −$190 -100%
Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5 Mar 22 $95 +$95 +100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $85 +$10 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $50 +$36 +71%
Raptors vs. Nuggets Mar 21 $68 +$49 +72%
Hawks vs. Rockets Mar 21 $210 +$29 +14%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 20 $10,579 −$10,409 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 81¢ $202 1h
Lokomotiv Kuban vs. BC Zenit BUY BC Zenit 46¢ $119 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 53¢ $119 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $125 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 80¢ $101 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 46¢ $408 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $429 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 80¢ $346 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 45¢ $346 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 45¢ $47 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $1 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $414 12d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 45¢ $3 18d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 45¢ $793 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 40¢ $170 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 SELL Over 48¢ $171 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 50¢ $183 20d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 58¢ $183 20d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $101 21d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 28¢ $4 42d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 28¢ $1,007 42d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 34¢ $152 42d
Knicks vs. 76ers SELL 76ers $152 42d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 62¢ $9 42d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 63¢ $4,990 42d
Lakers vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 96¢ $5,429 43d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 79¢ $4 43d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 79¢ $4,496 43d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 100¢ $4,675 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.69 · official $247.69 (match) · 280 history records