Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A2 0xa2c9…0f92 other 29 markets active 6h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$71 (+20%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$86
sports 10% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +15.2% +4.2% 45% 45% +8.2%
≤30d 29 +15.2% +4.2% 45% 45% +8.2%
≤90d 29 +15.2% +4.2% 45% 45% +8.2%
all 29 +15.2% +4.2% 45% 45% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 45% +8.2%
10% -5.8% 41% -2.2%
15% -14.9% 38% -11.6%
20% -23.2% 31% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage6d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$10 +46%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 20 $11 +$22 +197%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$6 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 +$15 +57%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 18 $4 +$21 +596%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $18 +$39 +214%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$10 +70%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$6 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$4 +62%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Ali Al Hamadi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 +$4 +36%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 +$23 +442%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$52 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 6h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $11 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $4 15h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists SELL Yes $0 17h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $16 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 32h
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $4 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 43h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Bernardo Silva: 1+ assists BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 3d
Ali Al Hamadi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $8 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $12 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 4d
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records