Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A2 0xa2cb…ad46 crypto 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,061 (-19%) realized −$1,841 · open −$220
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%24W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,135
7 days−$473
14 days−$930
30 days−$540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$1,311
crypto 29% −$575
sports 18% −$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -26.5% -33.5% 38% 38% -21.9%
≤30d 54 -21.3% -28.8% 41% 41% -17.7%
≤90d 70 -29.9% -36.6% 34% 34% -29.8%
all 70 -29.9% -36.6% 34% 34% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.6% 34% -29.8%
10% -42.6% 31% -36.5%
15% -48.2% 29% -42.6%
20% -53.3% 23% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$104 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$1,301
Realized−$1,841
Unrealized−$220
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses24 / 46
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions6
Markets (closed)70 / 76
History coverage73d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $842 $665 −$176 (-21%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $260 $260 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $178 $160 −$18 (-10%)
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $110 $91 −$19 (-18%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $81 $80 −$1 (-2%)
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$31 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $88 +$35 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$25 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $83 +$13 +16%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 17 $232 −$232 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 17 $179 −$179 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $547 −$547 -100%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$16 +46%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $327 +$231 +71%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $76 +$100 +132%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $56 +$46 +82%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $124 +$280 +225%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $123 −$123 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $24 +$32 +134%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $78 +$70 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$10 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$19 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $45 −$23 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$18 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $471 +$495 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 09 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 09 $234 −$234 -100%
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? Jun 07 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 24 $175 +$746 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 18 $242 −$242 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 18 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 18 $191 +$50 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 18 $73 +$62 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 18 $299 +$121 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 18 $44 +$24 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $83 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $83 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $266 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $37 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $72 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $37 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 2h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $53 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $36 2h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 2h
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $114 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $35 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $55 2h
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $42 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $41 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $41 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $38 2h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $132 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $31 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $179 41h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $547 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $52 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $35 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,301.34 · official $1,301.34 (match) · 182 history records