Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:36:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa2cb…a6af other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$670 (+11%) realized +$2,567 · open −$1,897
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$901now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$279
7 days+$401
14 days+$401
30 days+$611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$1,932
politics 30% +$307
other 22% +$358
world 1% −$30
crypto 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +16.6% +5.5% 30% 30% +8.0%
≤30d 34 +6.9% -3.3% 41% 41% +9.0%
≤90d 34 +6.9% -3.3% 41% 41% +9.0%
all 34 +6.9% -3.3% 41% 41% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 41% +9.0%
10% -12.6% 38% -1.4%
15% -21.0% 35% -10.9%
20% -28.8% 29% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$13 · ×4.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.35 per $1 lost it wins $3.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$901
Realized+$2,567
Unrealized−$1,897
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions8
Markets (closed)34 / 42
History coverage62d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $600 $586 −$14 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $246 $240 −$5 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+23%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 0¢ $1,899 $12 −$1,887 (-99%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 21 $1,652 +$282 +17%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $34 −$10 -28%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $143 −$44 -31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $96 +$216 +226%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $51 −$10 -19%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $26 −$6 -22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $60 +$27 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands end in a draw? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 06 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $31 +$66 +216%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $46 +$35 +76%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 04 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $69 +$36 +52%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $26 −$1 -5%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $31 −$31 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 +$17 +165%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 02 $115 +$25 +22%
Will Iraq win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $266 +$98 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $251 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $614 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $39 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1,928 4h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 51¢ $1,934 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $24 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $5 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $99 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $96 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $96 7d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $34 14d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $42 14d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $20 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 15d
Will Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 68¢ $60 15d
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 15d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 31¢ $29 17d
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 17d
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 56¢ $46 17d
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 65¢ $24 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $901.39 · official $901.39 (match) · 109 history records