Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa2cc…fa0a sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,879 (+17%) realized +$3,881 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate74%26W / 9L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$553per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,773now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,006
7 days+$1,463
14 days+$3,779
30 days+$3,779
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$1,276
sports 39% +$2,461
world 1% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.3% -9.8% 72% 72% +0.2%
≤30d 35 +4.9% -5.1% 74% 74% +6.9%
≤90d 35 +4.9% -5.1% 74% 74% +6.9%
all 35 +4.9% -5.1% 74% 74% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 74% +6.9%
10% -14.2% 51% -3.4%
15% -22.5% 23% -12.7%
20% -30.1% 17% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$529) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$163 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.58 per $1 lost it wins $3.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,773
Realized+$3,881
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses26 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage10d
Avg bet$553
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $600 $597 −$3 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $176 $180 +$4 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-2 Jun 22 $136 +$39 +29%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,519 +$1,067 +70%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $302 +$93 +31%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $301 +$41 +14%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $120 +$14 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $116 +$20 +17%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2,720 +$540 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,430 +$291 +12%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 19 $2,537 −$82 -3%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $476 −$472 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $375 +$97 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $208 +$165 +79%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $128 +$76 +59%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $221 −$219 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $174 +$45 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $273 +$66 +24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $342 −$169 -49%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $235 +$37 +16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $181 +$53 +29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $179 +$65 +36%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $131 +$24 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $155 −$155 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$29 +29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $126 −$125 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $163 −$43 -26%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,219 +$680 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,708 +$493 +29%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,114 +$582 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $811 +$291 +36%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $529 +$276 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $452 +$71 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $177 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1,519 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-2 BUY 77¢ $136 20h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $342 20h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $120 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $116 41h
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 89¢ $301 41h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 42h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $601 42h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 42h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 42h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $301 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 43h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $2,720 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,430 2d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 82¢ $2,430 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $100 3d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 82¢ $25 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $476 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $375 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $208 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $128 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 5d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 84¢ $2,537 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $221 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $174 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 42¢ $173 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $342 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $273 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,773.33 · official $1,773.33 (match) · 72 history records