Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa2cd…2ba0
other · 15 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$244,747 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$112,235 · open +$132,512
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$3,176,613
Realized+$112,235
Unrealized+$132,512
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)8 / 15
Avg bet$1,050,606
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 7 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$102,794
30 days+$102,665
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $1,270,834 $1,317,658 +$46,824 (+4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,262,549 $1,269,309 +$6,759 (+1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 85¢ 99¢ $491,631 $571,106 +$79,475 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 99¢ 96¢ $6,668 $6,477 −$191 (-3%)
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? No 100¢ 98¢ $6,363 $6,242 −$121 (-2%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 88¢ 82¢ $3,836 $3,591 −$245 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? No 97¢ 98¢ $2,221 $2,231 +$10 (+0%)
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1,214 $0 −$1,214 (-100%)
Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5,692,283 +$97,755 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $659,835 +$5,040 +1%
Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? May 18 $134 −$130 -97%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 10 $1,271 −$1,214 -96%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 08 $4,030 +$7 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 08 $114,262 +$554 +0%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 01 $2,286,496 +$3,722 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $3,949,998 +$6,502 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 36% +$97,625
other 35% +$60,705
world 25% +$6,502
politics 4% +$80,037
tech 0% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $4,950 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $150 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $356 3h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 3h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $3,895 10h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $243 11h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $15,075 11h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $210 11h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $62 11h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $50 12h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $60 12h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $295 12h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $31 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $1 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $40 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $40 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $89 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $89 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $134 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $6 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $40 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $170 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $9,437 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $73 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $17 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $8,970 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $97 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $102 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -32.5% -38.9% 67% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 8 -24.6% -31.7% 75% 0% -8.7%
all 8 -24.6% -31.7% 75% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.7% 0% -8.7%
10% -38.3% 0% -17.5%
15% ← realistic here -44.2% 0% -25.4%
20% -49.7% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,176,613.45 · official $3,176,613.45 (match) · 1613 history records