Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2cd…29b4 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-12%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day128.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$10
tech 25% −$19
weather 17% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -27.6% -34.5% 37% 16% -31.2%
≤30d 19 -27.6% -34.5% 37% 16% -31.2%
≤90d 19 -27.6% -34.5% 37% 16% -31.2%
all 19 -27.6% -34.5% 37% 16% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.5% 16% -31.2%
10% ← realistic here -40.8% 5% -37.8%
15% -46.5% 0% -43.8%
20% -51.7% 0% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day128.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$7 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -13%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -37%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $21 −$15 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records