Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:05:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2cd…2e8c crypto 327 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2862 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,081 (+4%) realized +$1,674 · open −$593
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%120W / 192L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day2861.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9,949now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$725
other 16% −$17
world 10% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2862 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 312 -10.9% -19.4% 38% 33% -10.4%
≤30d 312 -10.9% -19.4% 38% 33% -10.4%
≤90d 312 -10.9% -19.4% 38% 33% -10.4%
all 312 -10.9% -19.4% 38% 33% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2861.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 33% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 27% -18.9%
15% -34.2% 20% -26.8%
20% -40.6% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$16 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9,949
Realized+$1,674
Unrealized−$593
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses120 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions26
Markets (closed)312 / 327
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$83
Trades / day2861.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 95¢ $3,162 $3,111 −$51 (-2%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $2,290 $2,312 +$22 (+1%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,081 $1,110 +$30 (+3%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? Yes 89¢ 84¢ $989 $935 −$54 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Up 84¢ 100¢ $441 $521 +$81 (+18%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $318 $331 +$12 (+4%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $320 $322 +$3 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $195 $199 +$3 (+2%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Yes 64¢ 88¢ $128 $177 +$49 (+38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 53¢ 60¢ $155 $175 +$20 (+13%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 62¢ 81¢ $107 $142 +$35 (+32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 70¢ 40¢ $197 $113 −$83 (-42%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 78¢ 50¢ $164 $106 −$58 (-35%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 89¢ $109 $106 −$4 (-3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 51¢ 100¢ $21 $42 +$20 (+94%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 29¢ 18¢ $46 $29 −$17 (-37%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 76¢ 92¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+20%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Up 91¢ 100¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+10%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Down 37¢ 40¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 52¢ 68¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+31%)
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? Yes 86¢ 91¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 57¢ 32¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-43%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 21¢ 24¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+13%)
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? No 97¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 61¢ 76¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +191%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$14 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$52 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $71 −$63 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$17 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$2 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$4 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$4 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $76 −$9 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $123 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$20 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $308 −$26 -8%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$31 +45%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$4 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $71 −$18 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $1,004 −$17 -2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$19 +272%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$1 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $71 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $301 +$91 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +163%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$6 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$16 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $123 −$23 -19%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$12 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$8 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $7 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $0 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $13 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $4 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $12 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $20 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,949.19 · official $9,963.29 (match) · 3500 history records