Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:24:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2d0…87a0 other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$145 (-1%) realized −$145 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$14
politics 34% −$10
sports 4% −$122
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 105 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 4% -9.8%
all 121 -5.3% -14.3% 9% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 5% -10.1%
10% -22.5% 2% -18.7%
15% -30.0% 2% -26.5%
20% -36.9% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage116d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $371 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $397 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $619 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $168 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $423 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $176 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $156 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $303 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $153 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $345 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $145 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $143 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $153 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $322 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $143 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $192 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $207 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $181 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $197 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $868 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $192 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 21 $161 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $207 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $340 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $168 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 19 $193 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $215 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $386 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 17 $594 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 5h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 14h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 16h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 44h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 2d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 6d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 7d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 20d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 21d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 22d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $168 22d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $168 26d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $208 30d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $208 30d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $185 30d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $185 30d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $188 30d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $188 31d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $176 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 346 history records