Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:04:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa2d7…e3b7
other · 62 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,047 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,947 · open −$153
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,590
Realized+$2,947
Unrealized−$153
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses29 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions17
Markets (closed)48 / 62
History coverage10d
Avg bet$675
Trades / day345.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 17 History 48 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$786
7 days−$1,341
14 days+$2,947
30 days+$2,947
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 79¢ 71¢ $312 $281 −$31 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $236 $266 +$30 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $221 $229 +$7 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $231 $227 −$4 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $214 $214 +$1 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $198 $200 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 89¢ 98¢ $176 $194 +$18 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 73¢ 68¢ $198 $187 −$11 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $207 $178 −$29 (-14%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 61¢ 48¢ $210 $167 −$43 (-20%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $105 $118 +$13 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $87 $87 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $64 $67 +$2 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $43 $45 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $32 $42 +$10 (+32%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $36 $38 +$1 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 87¢ 81¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $110 $12 −$98 (-89%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $251 $0 −$251 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? No 54¢ 0¢ $228 $0 −$228 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$11 +2965%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $175 −$100 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +116%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $430 +$64 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $397 +$55 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $390 −$300 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $435 +$35 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1,660 −$205 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2,572 −$348 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $149 −$36 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $453 +$38 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $474 +$29 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $124 +$16 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,252 −$433 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,417 +$52 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $297 −$171 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $89 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $115 −$54 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1,360 −$254 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1,416 −$36 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1,134 −$112 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $649 +$33 +5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $808 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $81 +$4 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1,538 −$182 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $680 −$81 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $31 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $342 −$171 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $529 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2,439 −$199 -8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $464 +$57 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2,054 −$198 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,051 +$583 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,830 +$445 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $344 +$102 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $287 +$480 +167%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $570 +$687 +120%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $370 +$413 +112%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $2,011 +$661 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $661 +$495 +75%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,327 +$680 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $89 −$48 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $181 −$163 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $21 +$508 +2410%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $340 +$316 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $413 +$258 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$2,884
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $27 19m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $27 19m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $27 26m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 26m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $27 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $27 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $27 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $27 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $27 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $20 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $37 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $20 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $38 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+71.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +46.8% +32.9% 54% 27% -13.6%
≤30d 48 +89.7% +71.6% 60% 40% -0.7%
≤90d 48 +89.7% +71.6% 60% 40% -0.7%
all 48 +89.7% +71.6% 60% 40% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover345.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +71.6% 40% -0.7%
10% +55.2% 29% -10.2%
15% ← realistic here +40.2% 23% -18.9%
20% +26.4% 23% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,589.73 · official $2,589.73 (match) · 3500 history records