Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A2 0xa2d7…f17a world 34 markets active 17h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate62%21W / 13L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$2
sports 24% +$3
politics 21% +$5
other 9% +$1
culture 6% +$2
crypto 5% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.7% -10.1% 30% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 10 -0.7% -10.1% 30% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 10 -0.7% -10.1% 30% 0% -10.2%
all 34 +5.0% -5.0% 62% 12% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 12% -8.8%
10% -14.1% 6% -17.6%
15% -22.4% 3% -25.5%
20% -30.0% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses21 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage480d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $64 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $35 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $42 −$3 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $38 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) Mar 15 $200 −$15 -8%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $71 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 12 $199 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 11 $2 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 30 $37 $0 +1%
Arrest in the Suchir Balaji case before April? Mar 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $2 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 22 $67 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 21 $36 +$1 +2%
Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday? Mar 19 $31 +$5 +15%
Will 'Black Bag' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $30 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $31 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Michael Saylor attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? Mar 11 $30 $0 +0%
IUPUI vs. Wright State Mar 06 $24 +$6 +27%
Illinois State vs. Southern Illinois Mar 04 $12 +$12 +104%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $35 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $38 19h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 37h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 44h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $38 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $38 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $26 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $25 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $26 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $42 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $42 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $8 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $13 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $18 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $13 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $24 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $16 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records