Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:57:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A2 0xa2dc…26c5 other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$518 (-23%) realized −$468 · open −$50

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip

Net edge-57%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%7W / 17L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$92per market

Trades / day25.6pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-49.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	-44.0%	-49.4%	29%	29%	-28.8%
≤30d	24	-44.0%	-49.4%	29%	29%	-28.8%
≤90d	24	-44.0%	-49.4%	29%	29%	-28.8%
all	24	-44.0%	-49.4%	29%	29%	-28.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover25.6 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-49.4%	29%	-28.8%
10% ← realistic here	-54.2%	29%	-35.6%
15%	-58.6%	25%	-41.9%
20%	-62.7%	8%	-47.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -44% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -56% → late -32% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$73 vs −$58 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.51 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$468

Unrealized−$50

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses7 / 17

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions1

Markets (closed)24 / 25

History coverage2d

Avg bet$92

Trades / day25.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$50	$0	−$50 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$263	+$107	+41%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$53	−$50	-94%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$106	+$211	+198%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Jun 18	$21	−$20	-94%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$205	−$149	-73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$105	+$43	+41%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 17	$53	−$50	-94%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$213	−$6	-3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$211	+$79	+37%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$32	−$30	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Jun 17	$74	−$74	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 17	$43	−$40	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Jun 17	$32	−$30	-92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Jun 17	$20	−$20	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 17	$125	+$25	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 17	$54	−$50	-93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 17	$21	+$6	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 17	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$176	−$165	-94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$105	+$38	+36%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$53	−$50	-94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$107	−$100	-94%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway?	Jun 16	$107	−$100	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$53	21m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	86¢	$370	22m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	41¢	$53	31m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	58¢	$105	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	64¢	$105	1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	19¢	$53	3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	70¢	$317	3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$106	3h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	1¢	$53	17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	87¢	$149	17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	56¢	$105	17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	2¢	$40	17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	2¢	$43	18h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	7¢	$53	18h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	9¢	$53	19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$53	21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$53	23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$53	23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	77¢	$147	23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	50¢	$106	24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	35¢	$97	24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$53	24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	78¢	$143	24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	31¢	$86	24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	52¢	$105	24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$53	24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	7¢	$32	27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$24	37h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.19 (match) · 50 history records