Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2dc…31b6 crypto 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$155 (-8%) realized −$153 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%55W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$8
crypto 32% −$64
politics 13% −$77
world 2% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +4.8% -5.2% 52% 52% -13.0%
≤30d 31 +4.8% -5.2% 52% 52% -13.0%
≤90d 114 -10.1% -18.6% 48% 44% -20.1%
all 114 -10.1% -18.6% 48% 44% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 44% -20.1%
10% -26.4% 40% -27.8%
15% -33.5% 34% -34.8%
20% -40.1% 28% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$153
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses55 / 59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage49d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $166 $165 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$4 -9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $171 −$171 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $62 +$32 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $26 −$3 -12%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $91 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $118 +$267 +226%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $203 −$175 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $23 +$11 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$10 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $55 +$15 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$4 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$12 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +24%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$52 +510%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $74 +$24 +33%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$19 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 11 $3 −$2 -77%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 11 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 10 $6 −$5 -82%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 10 $166 +$5 +3%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 10 $100 −$82 -82%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $31 −$20 -67%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 10 $6 −$2 -32%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 10 $5 −$4 -86%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 10 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 10 $5 +$3 +63%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 10 $4 +$2 +59%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 10 $2 +$2 +94%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 10 $9 −$7 -78%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 10 $10 −$5 -52%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 10 $5 +$5 +103%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $169 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 22¢ $47 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $94 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 13¢ $23 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $76 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $86 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $91 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $92 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $16 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $14 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $8 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.53 · official $164.53 (match) · 294 history records