Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2dd…d9b8 other 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,889 (-33%) realized −$3,570 · open −$319
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$3,311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$4,533
14 days−$4,578
30 days−$4,578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$5,681
other 17% −$650
world 12% +$2,497
crypto 1% −$64
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -37.3% -43.3% 33% 33% -90.9%
≤30d 27 -39.0% -44.8% 33% 33% -90.8%
≤90d 28 -41.1% -46.7% 32% 32% -92.8%
all 42 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 38% -49.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 38% -49.3%
10% -22.7% 36% -54.1%
15% -30.1% 33% -58.5%
20% -37.0% 24% -62.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -92% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$267 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$3,311
Realized−$3,570
Unrealized−$319
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Open positions45
Markets (closed)42 / 87
History coverage374d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 82¢ 82¢ $1,111 $1,114 +$3 (+0%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $730 $676 −$55 (-7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $440 $271 −$169 (-38%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $200 $161 −$39 (-19%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $129 $135 +$5 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 19¢ $59 $128 +$69 (+118%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+35%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 32¢ $65 $52 −$13 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 64¢ 68¢ $40 $42 +$3 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $65 $41 −$24 (-37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-25%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $68 $33 −$34 (-51%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 68¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 36¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 67¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 27 $10 +$18 +180%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 +$4 +40%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 25 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Ivory Coast be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 Jun 23 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 +$27 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 31? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $151 −$151 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Dominican Republic win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jun 20 $100 −$78 -78%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Jun 20 $240 −$240 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jun 20 $2,078 −$1,950 -94%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jun 20 $722 −$621 -86%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jun 20 $686 −$639 -93%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 20 $410 −$410 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Will United States be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 28 $1,580 −$1,569 -99%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 28 $150 −$150 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $312 +$1,642 +527%
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $50 +$135 +270%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$133 +133%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $269 +$1,058 +394%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $150 +$3 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $50 −$22 -44%
Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting? Jan 24 $62 −$57 -92%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? Jan 08 $5 +$2 +51%
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 28 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 20? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 23 $50 +$34 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 82¢ $938 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 82¢ $128 3h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 29¢ $10 42h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 42h
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 42h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 42h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 42h
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 42h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 78¢ $5 2d
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 19¢ $497 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 64¢ $40 2d
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 77¢ $51 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 BUY Yes 10¢ $100 2d
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 3d
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3d
Will Ivory Coast be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 SELL Yes 5¢ $8 3d
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 3d
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 3d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 3d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 79¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 77¢ $25 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $15 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 BUY Yes 10¢ $21 7d
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 7d
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 7d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,310.97 · official $3,310.98 (match) · 329 history records