Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A2 0xa2dd…e1b2 sports 833 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,224 (-2%) realized −$11,632 · open −$592
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%803W / 22L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$752per market
Trades / day42.6pace
Fees−$229est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$9,416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$22,152
other 29% −$96
tech 3% +$48
weather 3% +$19
politics 0% +$9
world 0% +$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 1% -7.0%
≤30d 372 -1.2% -10.6% 98% 1% -12.2%
≤90d 825 +0.9% -8.7% 97% 1% -11.9%
all 825 +0.9% -8.7% 97% 1% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 1% -11.9%
10% -17.4% 1% -20.3%
15% ← realistic here -25.4% 1% -28.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1,188 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$9,416
Realized−$11,632
Unrealized−$592
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses803 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$229
Open positions7
Markets (closed)825 / 833
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$752
Trades / day42.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 825 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $3,717 $3,137 −$580 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2,155 $2,145 −$10 (-0%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-4.5) Spain 100¢ 100¢ $1,498 $1,499 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-3.5) Spain 100¢ 100¢ $1,411 $1,411 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Spain 100¢ 100¢ $1,008 $1,005 −$3 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $155 $154 −$1 (-1%)
Svrcina vs. Gomez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Maya Joint vs. Yulia Starodubtseva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $78 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Starodubtseva (-1.5) vs Joint (+1.5) Jun 15 $328 $0 +0%
Joint vs. Starodubtseva: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $78 $0 +0%
Joint vs. Starodubtseva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $78 $0 +0%
Joint vs. Starodubtseva: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Terence Atmane vs. Martin Landaluce: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $89 $0 +0%
Atmane vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Atmane vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Atmane vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8,092 +$8 +0%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $339 $0 +0%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,045 +$1 +0%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $10,500 +$14 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 14 $7,079 +$7 +0%
Set Handicap: Bellucci (-1.5) vs Bolt (+1.5) Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bellucci vs. Bolt: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $450 $0 +0%
Bellucci vs. Bolt: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $649 +$1 +0%
Majchrzak vs. Minaur: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Majchrzak vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Kamil Majchrzak vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $149 $0 +0%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $98 $0 +0%
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $79 $0 +0%
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $78 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Volynets vs. Birrell: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Volynets vs. Birrell: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $78 $0 +0%
Volynets vs. Birrell: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Katie Volynets vs. Kimberly Birrell: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,006 +$19 +1%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $4,240 +$5 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $486 +$5 +1%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $500 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $1,879 +$6 +0%
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Huesler (+1.5) Jun 13 $190 $0 +0%
Landaluce vs. Huesler: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Martin Landaluce vs. Marc-Andrea Huesler: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Landaluce vs. Huesler: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Landaluce vs. Huesler: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Shelton vs. Shimabukuro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 13 $345 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $999 +$1 +0%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $3,658 +$4 +0%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 13 $262 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $21,173 +$48 +0%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $2,462 +$2 +0%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 12 $3,989 +$64 +2%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $159 1m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $159 2m
Set Handicap: Starodubtseva (-1.5) vs Joint (+1.5) BUY Joint 100¢ $8 1h
Joint vs. Starodubtseva: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 100¢ $78 1h
Joint vs. Starodubtseva: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 100¢ $64 1h
Joint vs. Starodubtseva: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $78 1h
Maya Joint vs. Yulia Starodubtseva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $78 1h
Set Handicap: Starodubtseva (-1.5) vs Joint (+1.5) BUY Joint 100¢ $320 1h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-3.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $412 2h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-4.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $999 2h
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) BUY Atmane 100¢ $100 2h
Atmane vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 100¢ $64 3h
Atmane vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $64 3h
Terence Atmane vs. Martin Landaluce: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $89 3h
Atmane vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 100¢ $64 3h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-4.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $500 3h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-3.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $999 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,459 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,416.45 · official $9,416.45 (match) · 3500 history records