Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2dd…dc30 crypto 209 markets active 17h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$283 (-2%) realized −$283 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%145W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$481
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 -4.2% -13.3% 69% 69% -12.4%
≤30d 209 -4.2% -13.3% 69% 69% -12.4%
≤90d 209 -4.2% -13.3% 69% 69% -12.4%
all 209 -4.2% -13.3% 69% 69% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 69% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 62% -20.8%
15% -29.2% 33% -28.5%
20% -36.1% 13% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$68 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses145 / 64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)209 / 209
History coverage5d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 209 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $71 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $70 +$28 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $67 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $55 −$53 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $64 −$63 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $67 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $73 +$26 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $74 −$72 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $76 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $72 +$29 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $79 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $68 +$32 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$30 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $66 +$15 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $81 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $76 −$74 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$30 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $71 +$29 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $69 +$31 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $71 +$29 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $61 −$59 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$40 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $64 −$62 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $69 −$67 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $65 +$34 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $71 +$29 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $64 +$37 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $67 +$31 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $64 +$36 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $66 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $71 +$29 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $64 +$38 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $68 +$32 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $67 +$32 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $71 +$30 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $75 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $77 −$76 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $79 −$78 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $78 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $86 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $81 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $85 +$20 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $71 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $70 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $67 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $55 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $30 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $64 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $67 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $73 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $74 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $76 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $72 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $79 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $68 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $70 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $66 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $80 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $81 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $76 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $70 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $21 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $50 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $71 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $69 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $71 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $61 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $62 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $59 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $64 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $69 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 354 history records