Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2de…4803 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day73.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +2.5% -7.3% 67% 62% -12.2%
≤30d 24 +2.5% -7.3% 67% 62% -12.2%
≤90d 24 +2.5% -7.3% 67% 62% -12.2%
all 24 +2.5% -7.3% 67% 62% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 62% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 46% -20.6%
15% -24.2% 33% -28.3%
20% -31.7% 17% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$6 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$3 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $0 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records