Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2e0…d084 sports 954 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,377 (-2%) realized −$3,377 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%515W / 439L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$366
7 days+$77
14 days+$77
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$4,394
crypto 44% +$149
other 3% −$549
world 0% −$67
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -1.8% -11.1% 57% 55% -8.9%
≤30d 126 -0.9% -10.3% 56% 55% -10.1%
≤90d 377 -7.8% -16.6% 51% 50% -16.3%
all 954 -6.3% -15.2% 54% 52% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 52% -12.1%
10% -23.3% 47% -20.6%
15% -30.7% 41% -28.2%
20% -37.5% 36% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$147 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$3,377
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses515 / 439
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions0
Markets (closed)954 / 954
History coverage139d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 954 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $103 +$85 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $256 −$139 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$166 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$78 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $207 +$178 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $207 +$209 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $205 +$92 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $208 +$280 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $205 +$116 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $207 +$218 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $206 +$135 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $305 +$100 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$63 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $105 +$240 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $104 +$134 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $206 +$157 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $204 +$78 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $205 +$94 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $204 +$86 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $207 +$171 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $203 +$57 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $204 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $206 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $207 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $205 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $206 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $208 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $206 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $207 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $205 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $206 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $305 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.19 · official $185.19 (match) · 2236 history records