Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa2e5…c8d1 sports 281 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,036 (+9%) realized +$1,036 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%133W / 148L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$192est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days−$312
14 days−$114
30 days+$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,167
other 5% −$230
crypto 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -10.0% -18.5% 37% 35% -30.0%
≤30d 128 +4.3% -5.7% 45% 44% -3.8%
≤90d 281 +13.1% +2.4% 47% 45% -2.6%
all 281 +13.1% +2.4% 47% 45% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 45% -2.6%
10% -7.4% 41% -11.9%
15% -16.4% 37% -20.4%
20% -24.6% 32% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$25 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,036
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses133 / 148
Est. fees paid−$192
Open positions0
Markets (closed)281 / 281
History coverage47d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 281 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $106 +$78 +74%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$27 +263%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $19 −$13 -68%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $4 +$7 +170%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $18 −$12 -67%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $5 +$13 +262%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$2 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$21 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +146%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 18 $36 −$30 -84%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $20 +$17 +85%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $104 −$78 -75%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +59%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $41 −$1 -2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $140 −$7 -5%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$55 +180%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $6 −$5 -83%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $98 +$21 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $163 −$163 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $61 +$72 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina SELL QUAZAR 100¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina SELL QUAZAR 95¢ $47 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina SELL QUAZAR 43¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 23¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina SELL Fire Flux Esports 69¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 30¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina SELL QUAZAR 27¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 35¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina SELL Fire Flux Esports 51¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 41¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 54¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina SELL Fire Flux Esports 47¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina SELL Fire Flux Esports 51¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 54¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY Fire Flux Esports 30¢ $31 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $37 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 19¢ $2 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 30¢ $3 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 44¢ $3 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 19¢ $2 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $3 5h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 28¢ $2 5h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 23¢ $4 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $11 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $4 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 25¢ $2 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 31¢ $6 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 42¢ $14 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $3 25h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs SELL Hive 17¢ $6 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 832 history records