Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2e5…03fc sports 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$285 (-5%) realized −$137 · open −$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate44%63W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$158
14 days−$159
30 days−$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$167
other 24% −$276
finance 16% −$99
tech 8% −$18
economics 3% −$155
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -56.3% -60.5% 33% 0% -63.3%
≤30d 65 -17.9% -25.7% 42% 25% -22.0%
≤90d 144 -6.0% -15.0% 44% 26% -13.5%
all 144 -6.0% -15.0% 44% 26% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 26% -13.5%
10% -23.1% 20% -21.8%
15% -30.5% 17% -29.4%
20% -37.3% 12% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses63 / 81
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions10
Markets (closed)144 / 154
History coverage54d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $215 in June? Yes 20¢ 3¢ $97 $15 −$82 (-84%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? Yes 15¢ 9¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-39%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? Yes 28¢ 10¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-62%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 in June? Yes 26¢ 2¢ $35 $3 −$32 (-92%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $740 in June? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $22 $2 −$20 (-92%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 in June? Yes 18¢ 5¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-72%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $116 in June? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-84%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in June? Yes 27¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+54%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $160 −$155 -97%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -73%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +38%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 08 $32 −$1 -3%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 07 $19 +$7 +36%
Will ASM Clermont Auvergne win? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Harlequins win? Jun 06 $24 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? Jun 05 $2 $0 -17%
Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 03 $3 +$2 +70%
Set 1 Winner: Dellien vs Schoenhaus Jun 02 $13 +$12 +93%
Masarova vs. Martincova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $21 −$3 -17%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 01 $208 −$35 -17%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 01 $48 −$11 -23%
Will Club ABB win on 2026-05-14? May 31 $36 −$21 -58%
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $12 +$6 +52%
Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $35 +$3 +7%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $93 −$4 -5%
Will IK Sirius win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Halmstads BK win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $11 +$2 +16%
Granada CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 4.5 May 30 $5 +$1 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $30 +$14 +46%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $60 −$60 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $45 +$12 +27%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Molde FK (-1.5) May 30 $62 −$8 -12%
Spread: Molde FK (-2.5) May 30 $173 +$3 +2%
Molde FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 2.5 May 30 $44 −$33 -76%
Paris Basketball vs. Strasbourg May 30 $6 +$1 +10%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? May 30 $35 +$26 +75%
Vicenza: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Lukas Neumayer May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Goransson/King vs Hidalgo/Trhac May 30 $9 +$2 +18%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol B (-2.5) May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 3.5 May 30 $99 +$56 +57%
GAIS vs. Kalmar FF: O/U 1.5 May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Kalmar FF (-2.5) May 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $264 in May? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 30 $165 −$24 -15%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $300 in May? May 30 $26 $0 -2%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May? May 30 $9 $0 -4%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in May? May 30 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Little Rock: Fajing Sun vs Jay Dylan Friend May 29 $49 +$52 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $102 1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $215 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 38h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 38h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 5d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $116 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 7d
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $116 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $116 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 7d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 7d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 7d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 7d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 7d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 8d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 8d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) BUY FUT Esports 72¢ $2 8d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 11d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 11d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 11d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 12d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 12d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 12d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.76 (match) · 703 history records