Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa2e7…1b5b
crypto · 582 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$793 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$926 · open −$38
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$148
Realized−$926
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses370 / 210
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)580 / 582
History coverage102d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 2 History 580 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$556
7 days+$599
14 days+$648
30 days−$657
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $117 $76 −$41 (-35%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $69 $71 +$3 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $57 −$37 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $224 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $83 +$82 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $126 −$18 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $34 −$25 -72%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $542 +$279 +51%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $304 +$63 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$13 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $98 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $167 +$948 +566%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $120 −$26 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 13 $336 −$152 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $359 −$54 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 13 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 13 $229 −$119 -52%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $331 −$80 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $226 +$74 +33%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $23 +$84 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$19 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $75 −$15 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $100 +$39 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $70 −$21 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $135 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $8 +$9 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 31 $28 +$15 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 31 $54 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $310 +$51 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $112 −$9 -8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $37 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 29 $55 +$12 +21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $89 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 26 $15 −$11 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 26 $15 +$12 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,154 +$97 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $113 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $372 +$45 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $72 +$18 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $110 −$23 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 24 $55 +$14 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 53% −$2,052
other 41% −$727
world 2% +$2,176
politics 2% −$150
tech 2% −$215
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 0m
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25m
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 32m
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $42 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $108 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $126 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 3h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 4h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 4h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 4h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $47 4h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 5h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +1.9% -7.8% 41% 31% +3.7%
≤30d 156 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 42% -12.8%
≤90d 576 +0.5% -9.0% 64% 53% -11.0%
all 580 +1.9% -7.8% 64% 53% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 53% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 38% -19.5%
15% -24.7% 23% -27.3%
20% -32.1% 13% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.52 · official $147.52 (match) · 3500 history records