Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:56:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2ef…f31e crypto 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,131 (-31%) realized −$4,868 · open −$263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 43L
Whale WR10%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3,574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,815
7 days−$2,459
14 days−$2,461
30 days−$2,461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$5,281
other 43% −$1,323
crypto 11% −$162
world 2% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -19.5% -27.2% 37% 35% -36.7%
≤30d 54 -15.7% -23.8% 37% 35% -36.7%
≤90d 68 -24.3% -31.5% 37% 32% -55.9%
all 68 -24.3% -31.5% 37% 32% -55.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 32% -55.9%
10% -38.1% 29% -60.2%
15% -44.1% 22% -64.0%
20% -49.6% 19% -67.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 10% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$180 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$3,574
Realized−$4,868
Unrealized−$263
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions6
Markets (closed)68 / 74
History coverage67d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1,000 $1,320 +$320 (+32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1,200 $1,211 +$11 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $651 $649 −$2 (-0%)
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) Allan Nascimento 60¢ 42¢ $562 $394 −$169 (-30%)
Fight to Go the Distance? No 53¢ 0¢ $224 $0 −$224 (-100%)
Will Michael Aswell win by KO or TKO? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $539 −$223 -41%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $669 +$553 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $1,115 −$1,091 -98%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $597 −$57 -10%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,029 −$133 -13%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,030 −$383 -37%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,026 −$430 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$33 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $128 −$125 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$19 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$127 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $457 −$449 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $177 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $182 −$175 -96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$81 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$82 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$152 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 60¢ $569 14m
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre SELL Gaston Bolaños 42¢ $316 19m
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Gaston Bolaños 68¢ $34 26m
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Gaston Bolaños 70¢ $505 27m
Will Michael Aswell win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 50¢ $203 36m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 53¢ $227 38m
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 100¢ $1,222 53m
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 54¢ $669 1h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 1¢ $10 1h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 1¢ $51 1h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 3¢ $103 1h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 7¢ $103 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $540 1h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 8¢ $32 1h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 30¢ $408 1h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 38¢ $407 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $896 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $666 5h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $647 5h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $597 40h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $596 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,573.89 · official $3,756.66 · 180 history records