Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A2 0xa2f0…0c50 sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$176 (+7%) realized +$180 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days−$103
14 days+$184
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$65
sports 37% +$118
finance 8% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +34.5% +21.7% 57% 57% -15.7%
≤30d 18 +32.1% +19.5% 61% 61% -2.0%
≤90d 18 +32.1% +19.5% 61% 61% -2.0%
all 18 +32.1% +19.5% 61% 61% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.5% 61% -2.0%
10% +8.0% 44% -11.3%
15% -2.4% 33% -19.9%
20% -12.0% 33% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$70 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$180
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage14d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 78¢ 77¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 +$26 +250%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $60 −$3 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $401 +$48 +12%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 +$24 +77%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $29 +$71 +250%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $220 +$74 +33%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$9 +18%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $202 +$47 +23%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $92 +$108 +117%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $217 +$118 +54%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $358 +$79 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $35 10m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 11m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 27m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 78¢ $202 56m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $57 1h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $60 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 89¢ $401 17h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $54 17h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 18h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 23h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 94¢ $261 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 94¢ $33 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $220 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 19¢ $51 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $204 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 38¢ $60 4d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Morocco 13¢ $9 4d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 14¢ $10 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $51 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 5d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic $21 5d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $248 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 46¢ $92 7d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $157 8d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $358 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.72 · official $195.72 (match) · 38 history records