Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:58:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa2f0…e477
weather · 66 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$12 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses54 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage20d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? No 91¢ 96¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? No 85¢ 79¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar Anna Bondar 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Harriet Dart Harriet Dart 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $3 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +3%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $24 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 −$14 -95%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 6? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $23 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $21 +$8 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $18 +$2 +9%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $5 −$3 -54%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $10 $0 +5%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Laura Samson Jun 03 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $18 $0 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Harriet Dart Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Tereza Martincova Jun 02 $5 +$1 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $11 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$3 +68%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $10 −$7 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $19 +$1 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $24 −$5 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 31? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on May 31? May 31 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 69% +$11
sports 31% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $5 2h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu SELL Sorana Cirstea 47¢ $4 12h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 39¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 13h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria SELL Elena Rybakina 100¢ $20 13h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 99¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $15 15h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $15 17h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $31 19h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $20 24h
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Barbora Krejcikova 92¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $31 37h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $30 39h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $31 39h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $15 46h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $15 46h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Iva Jovic 100¢ $23 2d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Iva Jovic 87¢ $10 2d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Iva Jovic 84¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 9? BUY No 97¢ $24 4d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +1.8% -7.9% 92% 16% -9.3%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 84% 20% -8.4%
≤90d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 84% 20% -8.4%
all 64 -0.2% -9.7% 84% 20% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 20% -8.4%
10% -18.3% 6% -17.1%
15% -26.2% 3% -25.1%
20% -33.4% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.13 · official $36.13 (match) · 153 history records