Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:52:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2f3…d82c crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate58%31W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$21
14 days−$28
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$8
sports 20% −$14
world 7% −$15
other 2% +$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.1% -15.0% 50% 40% -13.2%
≤30d 20 +5.8% -4.3% 50% 40% -13.1%
≤90d 32 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 41% -13.6%
all 53 +1.3% -8.3% 58% 40% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 40% -10.7%
10% -17.1% 25% -19.3%
15% -25.1% 11% -27.1%
20% -32.4% 8% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses31 / 22
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage127d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $54 −$6 -10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $92 −$37 -40%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $73 +$18 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $66 +$7 +11%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $19 +$8 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $61 +$5 +9%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $50 +$6 +12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $55 −$1 -2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $13 −$7 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? May 31 $78 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 31 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 28 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 28 $10 +$14 +131%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $169 −$14 -8%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $102 −$10 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? May 07 $81 +$25 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 10PM ET May 07 $44 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 06 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 09 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 09 $82 −$9 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 09 $69 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 09 $36 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 09 $46 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 09 $149 −$54 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 09 $159 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 09 $159 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 09 $68 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 09 $100 +$22 +22%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5 Feb 09 $40 +$6 +16%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 37.5 Feb 09 $35 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 09 $27 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 09 $49 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 09 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 09 $133 −$36 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 09 $218 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 09 $42 +$10 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 SELL Under 72¢ $49 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $54 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $54 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $92 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $73 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $66 3d
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 72¢ $60 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 66¢ $56 4d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) SELL South Africa 64¢ $56 4d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY South Africa 56¢ $50 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 70¢ $33 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $19 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $0 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $19 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 69¢ $21 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $55 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $7 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? SELL No 60¢ $67 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records