Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2f4…aac1 world 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%28W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$17
other 23% −$1
politics 13% $0
sports 9% −$7
economics 4% −$6
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 31 -0.0% -9.5% 39% 6% -8.6%
≤90d 74 +0.1% -9.5% 32% 4% -9.1%
all 88 -2.5% -11.8% 32% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 5% -9.4%
10% -20.3% 2% -18.1%
15% -28.0% 1% -26.0%
20% -35.0% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses28 / 60
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage529d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $23 −$1 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$1 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $169 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -10%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $58 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $103 +$3 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $43 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $109 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $62 −$1 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $18 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $163 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $64 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $67 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $110 +$3 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $97 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $46 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $59 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $62 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $55 +$9 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $10 −$2 -20%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $57 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $60 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $51 +$10 +20%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $5 +$1 +10%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $37 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $112 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $80 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $76 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $37 $0 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $101 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $79 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 13 $41 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $57 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $13 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $13 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $13 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $4 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $4 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $46 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $9 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $53 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $57 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $8 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $18 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $31 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $58 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.19 · official $58.90 · 391 history records