Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:11:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa2f5…a31c
crypto · 56 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$16 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses27 / 26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 3 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% −$13
weather 10% −$3
other 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -3.4% -12.6% 62% 52% -15.7%
≤30d 53 -21.5% -28.9% 51% 42% -28.3%
≤90d 53 -21.5% -28.9% 51% 42% -28.3%
all 53 -21.5% -28.9% 51% 42% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 42% -28.3%
10% -35.7% 30% -35.1%
15% -41.9% 17% -41.4%
20% -47.6% 8% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.78 · official $4.78 (match) · 124 history records