Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:04:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2f7…1c7a world 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 335d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%30W / 66L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$46
other 19% +$5
politics 18% −$1
sports 10% −$1
crypto 3% −$3
economics 2% +$1
finance 1% −$9
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 27 +1.1% -8.5% 52% 4% -8.8%
≤90d 73 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 3% -9.3%
all 96 -0.0% -9.5% 31% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

335d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses30 / 66
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)96 / 101
History coverage335d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $192 $192 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $160 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $64 +$2 +4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $288 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $122 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $118 +$50 +43%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $161 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $29 −$6 -21%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $361 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $164 −$4 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $654 +$2 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $496 +$1 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $150 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $90 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $150 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $491 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $635 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $349 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $31 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $147 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $306 −$3 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $286 +$2 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $99 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $66 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $76 −$9 -11%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $165 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $165 +$1 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $4 −$1 -25%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $152 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $165 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $96 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $464 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $164 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $165 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $165 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $313 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $158 −$2 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $16 $0 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $190 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $237 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $309 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $8 $0 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $87 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $28 $0 -1%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $171 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $36 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $120 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $125 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $89 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $71 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $26 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $27 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $64 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $131 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $10 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $141 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $40 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $59 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $59 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $81 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $122 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 34¢ $100 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $53 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $104 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.81 · official $191.78 (match) · 453 history records