Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A2 0xa2f9…7196 sports 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$415 (-13%) realized −$417 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%55W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$10
14 days+$18
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$99
crypto 21% −$445
world 13% −$140
other 13% +$88
politics 9% +$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.8% -7.0% 73% 73% -13.3%
≤30d 18 +14.8% +3.8% 83% 67% -2.3%
≤90d 30 +1.8% -7.9% 73% 60% -11.3%
all 91 -8.5% -17.3% 60% 54% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 54% -21.6%
10% -25.2% 44% -29.1%
15% -32.4% 30% -36.0%
20% -39.0% 19% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$30 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$417
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses55 / 36
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)91 / 94
History coverage607d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $8 +$2 +30%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $35 +$7 +20%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $40 +$8 +20%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 +$9 +34%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$18 +90%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$8 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$5 +32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 +$5 +34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Jun 13 $85 +$3 +3%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 01 $51 +$23 +45%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $90 +$5 +5%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 02 $50 +$3 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $20 +$4 +18%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Sco Apr 18 $30 +$24 +80%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 16 $25 +$9 +38%
Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $20 +$17 +86%
RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $20 −$20 -99%
CA Osasuna vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $7 −$7 -99%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Apr 09 $15 +$6 +38%
Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Mar 29 $48 −$48 -100%
Colombia vs. France: O/U 1.5 Mar 29 $39 +$9 +23%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $3 +$2 +62%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Athletic Club vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $5 +$5 +92%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $14 −$14 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $7 +$7 +94%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5 Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $49 +$9 +18%
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Mar 22 $40 −$15 -37%
Sevilla FC vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5 Mar 21 $20 +$10 +49%
CA Osasuna vs. Girona FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 21 $8 −$7 -89%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 Mar 21 $5 +$4 +72%
Elche CF vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $12 +$4 +35%
Elche CF vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5 Mar 20 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $25 +$6 +25%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $10 +$8 +75%
Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 69¢ $34 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $35 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $30 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $8 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $35 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $40 30h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $25 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $15 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $15 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $20 8d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $73 20d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $95 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $85 30d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $50 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 31d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 45d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 68¢ $51 50d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 90¢ $24 60d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Sco SELL Yes 100¢ $54 64d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $90 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.62 · official $151.63 (match) · 206 history records