Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2fc…0366 politics 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%7W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$5
sports 28% −$2
world 9% $0
culture 5% −$1
other 5% $0
crypto 5% −$1
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
all 48 -11.0% -19.5% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -27.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -34.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -40.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses7 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage225d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $68 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $141 $0 -0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $68 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $74 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $70 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? Mar 10 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 4? Mar 08 $69 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 04 $74 $0 -0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $71 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $141 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $143 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $73 $0 -1%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $73 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 14 $72 +$1 +2%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 12 $72 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $1 $0 -50%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $139 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 03 $72 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $73 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $74 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 07 $71 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 04 $70 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 04 $1 $0 -17%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 04 $1 $0 -51%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $3 −$1 -38%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 30 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 28 $72 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 27 $71 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 27 $1 $0 -20%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 26 $1 $0 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 25? Nov 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $1 $0 -23%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 24 $73 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 22 $1 $0 -10%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 16 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $77 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 08 $76 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $68 3d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 20d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $68 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $69 108d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 112d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 117d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $70 125d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $70 136d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 136d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 1¢ $2 140d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 140d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $70 140d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $70 140d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 140d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 142d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $71 142d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $71 144d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.49 · official $67.49 (match) · 181 history records