Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa2ff…6ab4 weather 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$891 (-2%) realized +$428 · open −$1,319
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate65%122W / 65L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$3,520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days+$259
14 days+$195
30 days+$678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 59% −$975
finance 22% +$495
other 6% +$48
crypto 5% −$177
world 3% −$378
politics 2% −$434
tech 2% +$78
sports 0% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -10.5% -19.0% 72% 31% -8.3%
≤30d 121 -3.0% -12.3% 71% 43% -7.7%
≤90d 187 -10.2% -18.7% 65% 40% -9.3%
all 187 -10.2% -18.7% 65% 40% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 40% -9.3%
10% -26.5% 25% -17.9%
15% -33.6% 17% -25.9%
20% -40.1% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$87 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$3,520
Realized+$428
Unrealized−$1,319
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses122 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions23
Markets (closed)187 / 210
History coverage52d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22? No 90¢ 88¢ $1,443 $1,411 −$32 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 61¢ 40¢ $711 $469 −$241 (-34%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $417 $433 +$15 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? No 83¢ 84¢ $255 $261 +$5 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 22¢ $480 $215 −$265 (-55%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 22¢ 5¢ $700 $152 −$548 (-78%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 65¢ 60¢ $111 $103 −$8 (-8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $99 $96 −$3 (-3%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $72 $62 −$10 (-14%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $100 $52 −$48 (-48%)
Will Anthony Albanese be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? Yes 52¢ 40¢ $60 $45 −$15 (-24%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $21 $38 +$17 (+83%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $94 $25 −$69 (-74%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 42¢ 6¢ $80 $12 −$68 (-85%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in June? Yes 31¢ 3¢ $33 $3 −$30 (-90%)
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Yes 49¢ 2¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $632 +$167 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? Jun 21 $277 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $737 +$70 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $585 −$280 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1,021 +$100 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $355 −$178 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $310 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $290 −$12 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $580 +$19 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $395 +$62 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $505 +$37 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $594 +$106 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $483 +$17 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 18 $99 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $540 +$60 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $713 +$63 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $741 −$732 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $600 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $571 +$29 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 −$98 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $492 +$50 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $416 +$109 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $674 +$116 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $38 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,097 +$61 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $401 +$15 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $618 −$605 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $540 +$410 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,628 +$310 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $220 +$30 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $381 +$12 +3%
Will "AI" be said 35+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $1,508 +$508 +34%
Will "People" be said 200+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience Jun 15 $80 −$80 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $410 +$129 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $425 +$34 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $375 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $208 +$167 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $419 +$156 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $104 +$5 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $161 +$63 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $829 −$785 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $615 +$50 +8%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $74 +$44 +60%
Will Oracle say "Vision" during earnings call? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $536 +$40 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $33 0m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $32 4m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $4 9m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $6 10m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $580 11m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $799 57m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $37 58m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? BUY No 83¢ $257 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $245 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $793 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $399 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $362 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $46 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $358 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $18 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $29 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 87¢ $303 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? BUY No 78¢ $632 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $1,121 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $235 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? SELL No 12¢ $58 28h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 47¢ $177 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $318 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,520.26 · official $3,520.27 (match) · 653 history records