Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A3 0xa302…9e09 other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+3%) realized +$39 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate84%37W / 7L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$3
crypto 13% +$7
politics 12% +$5
finance 11% +$9
culture 9% +$4
world 7% +$1
sports 4% +$3
tech 2% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +3.7% -6.2% 57% 14% -8.8%
≤90d 28 +2.6% -7.1% 75% 14% -6.5%
all 44 +4.7% -5.3% 84% 20% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 20% -5.8%
10% -14.3% 11% -14.8%
15% -22.6% 2% -23.0%
20% -30.2% 2% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.96 per $1 lost it wins $3.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses37 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)44 / 65
History coverage140d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 59¢ 44¢ $18 $14 −$5 (-26%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 91¢ 91¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 88¢ 97¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+10%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 87¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 89¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 94¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $35 −$2 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 05 $45 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 05 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $11 +$1 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $19 +$5 +27%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 21 $6 +$4 +57%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 21 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 21 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $9 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $24 +$2 +9%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 28 $8 $0 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 21 $13 $0 -4%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $18 −$4 -24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 06 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Apr 06 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Apr 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 06 $25 +$3 +10%
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $17 +$3 +16%
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 21 $12 +$2 +18%
Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $9 $0 +3%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 18 $11 +$4 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 03 $29 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 03 $5 $0 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 03 $6 +$2 +27%
Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Feb 27 $2 $0 +5%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 13 $10 $0 +4%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026 Feb 12 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 33m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 36m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 53m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 56m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $28 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $14 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $15 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $13 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 88¢ $11 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $15 10d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $39 10d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $39 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $39 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $38 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $10 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $17 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $17 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $10 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 16d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 16d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 16d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.14 · official $77.27 · 234 history records